VTsIOM Poll

VTsIOM conucted a poll recently on the members of the Government, and I was kind of surprised by the results.

First of all, Sergei Shoigu has the highest approval rating of anyone in the government (people were not asked about Putin).  I have mixed feelings about Shoigu.  He has held the post of Emergency Situations Minister since Boris Yeltsin came to power.  On the one hand, I feel like he must be doing something right, and his approval rating has always been pretty high.  But then yesterday’s incident makes me pause to think.  His solution to the Bulgaria tragedy is to put black boxes in all boats.  What?  That’s his response?  Quite frankly, the man has never been good in an “emergency” (Beslan, Dubrovka, etc.), and I’m still not sure where he is getting such high numbers.  Unless people are just saying that they like him because they know who he is (he has been in the Government since 1991, after all).  That’s the only thing I can come up with anyway.  Also, presumably, the poll was conducted before the Bulgaria tragedy.

Here are some more numbers:

• Sergei Lavrov — 47% approval rating.  Okay, I’ll buy that.  He’s one of the most public figures of the Government since he is the head diplomat.
• Sergei Ivanov — 32% approve of the job he’s doing (or have heard of him, anyway).

And the lows are:

• Andrei Fursenko — 50% disapprove of the job he is doing.  Hardly suprising since he’s the face of education “reform”, and most teachers are upset about it.
• Tatiana Golikova — 41% disapprove of the job she is doing.  What is she doing, anyway?  I don’t even know.
• Alexei Kudrin — 34% disapprove of the job he is doing.  Well, he’s not exactly populist, is he?  And I doubt he’s really out to win any popularity contests.  But then none of these people are, are they?  Their job doesn’t depend on what the general populace think of them.  It only depends on what Putin and Medvedev think of them, and their work.

Some other numbers:

• 75% of people don’t know who Igor Sechin is;
• 72% don’t know who Vyacheslav Volodin is; and
• 71% have never heard of Igor Shuvalov.

I was a little shocked when I saw those numbers, but I bet if you asked Americans the same questions about their Government, they would say the same thing.

Another Hat for Shuvy

Good news, kids!  Igor Shuvalov is getting yet another job!  As if he wasn’t working his tail off with all the other hats he wears (foreign trade, small business, anti-monopoly policy, etc.), he is now the “Ombudsman to the Investment Policy Department of the Ministry of Economic Development”.

The Numbers Are In

And the winner is…

Surkov & the Civiliki

As you may or may not have noticed, I am a bit obsessed with Slava Surkov.  It has gotten to the point where even I wonder if I have imbued him with more qualities than he actually possesses.  So, I was surprised to discover myself a little sceptical of Stratfor’s breakdown of the clans within the Kremlin.  I do not disagree with the essence of what Friedman says, but with certain facts, and his interpretation of those facts.

Moscow and Kompromat

We talk a lot about people having Kompromat.  But nothing ever comes of it.  If I were to pick one person who has real, serious Kompromat, I would choose Yuri Luzhkov.  I cannot really see why else Putin et al. have not done anything about Yuri.  So I am not sure that I entirely buy into this idea that Yuri could be on his way out.  Here is what Viktor Timoffev says:

There are two possible scenarios for the [Moscow] region’s future. Either the Kremlin will appoint a new governor or Moscow and the Moscow region will join as a single municipality, and the newly appointed governor will replace both Gromov and Yury Luzhkov, the legendary Moscow mayor.

This solution would clear up a lot of confusion about Moscow’s status.  And it would be easier to control what goes on in Moscow.  But I still think that Yuri is safe, for the time being.

Timoffev goes on:

Some experts assume that the Kremlin is considering first deputy-prime minister Sergey Sobyanin for the job. One of the experts, who asked for anonimity because he was not authorized to speak on this matter, stated in an interview: “Sobyanin is one of the likeliest perspective candidates for this job and it whould be excellent if he would accept it. Other possible candidates for the position would be another first deputy PM Igor Shuvalov, or deputy PM Zhukov and Kozak.”

Let’s go through this list, shall we?  First, Sergey Sobyanin.  His CV makes him the most ideal candidate. Governor of Tyumen, plus various other admin posts.  In addition his current responsibilities of overseeing the division of power among federal, regional, and municipal levels of government make him very experienced.  However, as the Power Vertical has proved, a resume does not mean anything.  I shall probably repeat this until you get sick of hearing it, but the only thing the Power Vertical requires is a warm body who is at least nominally loyal.  And if we are going on loyalty alone, the most likely candidate from this list is Zhukov.  Because Kozak has shown that he can break out, and there is no way that Putin is letting go of Igor Shuvalov.