My 2012 Election Predictions

There is probably not a good way to say this beyond the absolute, blunt truth: Putin is bored.  He hates being PM, and I am not sure that anyone could, or should, blame him for it.  Putin has essentially been Mr Russia for the last 3 years and some odd months.  Even Miss America is only Miss America for one year, and there is a reason for it.  That reason is, of course, that she’d go stark, staring mad if she had to do it for longer.

Levada Center

has released their most recent poll for the March 2012 presidential election (in Russian).  Those being polled were asked, “If the election were held next Sunday, would you take part, and who would you vote for?”

As of now, Putin is leading in the polls with a paltry 23%.  That is only 1 percentage point ahead of “I don’t know who I will vote for”.  Medvedev is 5 percentage points behind Putin with 18%.  12% say they would not participate at all.  11% don’t know if they would vote.  Zyuganov gets 6%, and Zhirinovksy gets 5%.

Basically, apathy is killing Russia, and this election specifically.

And speaking of apathy, has anyone seen Gennady Zyuganov recently?  The man looks seriously worn out, and kind of over it, despite the rhetoric he puts forward in article I linked to.  It makes me kind of sad.  He needs to give up the mantle to someone younger, I think, but he’s kind of in the same place as VVP.  He can’t.  There is no one else (in their minds, anyway).

Medvedev’s Speech

I am posting a link to Medvedev’s speech at Davos. I have not had time to go through it yet, but I will post some comments in the next few days.  A lot of people were worried that the terror attack somehow changed the subject from Yukos, and Magnitsky to other issues.  However, I think that the real issue remains the same no matter which subject you are talking about: corruption.  Anyway, commentary forthcoming…

P.S.  Miriam Elder had an excellent piece published in The Atlantic about the issues surrounding the bombing of Domodedovo.

Oh Stanislav Belkovsky…

you seriously read way too much into things.  Not that I’m criticising.  I tend to do the same thing.  I am just not sure that I agree with you.

Stanislav Belkovsky, an independent analyst, said United Russia was aware that Medvedev had planned to halt the highway project and suggested that cracks were emerging in its once-steadfast alliance to Putin.

“The decision shows that the party is responding to orders from the top powers represented by Dmitry Medvedev and not to Vladimir Putin, the party leader,” he said.

And does anyone really believe that you are “independent”?  What does that even mean?  That you’re not paid by the Kremlin?  But surely someone is paying you.

And does this go along with Frolov’s latest piece of propaganda about how “green” DAM is?  Maybe Frolov talked DAM into this decision.

P.S. The photo of Bono is awesome.

Pictures!

Foreign Policy has a nice slide show of pictures comparing how Putin and Medvedev (or Vova & Dima) “spent their summer vacation”.  It’s amusing, and the conclusion is an interesting one:

“Judging by the optics of the summer’s PR shots, he [Putin] may be done sharing the spotlight.”

The Numbers Are In

And the winner is…

Modernizing Television

Excellent piece today by Alexei Pankin on why Medvedev’s modernization may fail.  Hi-lights:

Over the past few months, Medvedev is everywhere on television. But he almost always seems to be wearing a dour expression, which appears out of place with his boyish appearance….

What’s the fallout of having a president with a stiff, Brezhnev-like television image? On the same day Medvedev spoke at the journalism forum, Nezavisimaya Gazeta ran an article titled “Russians Unconvinced by Call for Modernization.” It reported the results of a survey showing that although everybody in Russia agrees with the need for modernization, only 5 percent of those questioned believed that the state was capable of driving this innovation. That degree of skepticism is clearly linked to the fact that the country lacks strong presidential leadership….

The risks are obvious. Russia cannot modernize unless television coverage of Medvedev is modernized. Otherwise, the people will never accept Medvedev as a real president. In the best-case scenario, he will maintain the image of a popular blogger.

Mikhail Lesin

I have never been interested in Mikhail Lesin because I always imagined him a minor player who was initially kept on as a courtesy to Boris Yeltsin, and then somehow managed to survive in the dog eat dog world that is the Kremlin.  I still believe this, actually.  What I find curious is most people’s response to the sacking of Mikhail Lesin.  Most people act as though this is the first personnel decision ever made by the President.  But we know that is not true.  Only a few weeks ago, Dzhakhan Pollyeva was transferred out of the speech writing bureau.

I have mixed feelings about all of this.  I think that Lesin was irrelevant, and thus the decision was more than likely based upon a personality conflict, rather than the stated corruption.  Plus, he still appears to be a member of the Supervisory Board of Sochi 2014.  On the other hand, it could be the beginning of the anti-corruption drive that Medvedev has decided to use as his platform.

In light of that, Itar-Tass asks: was Lesin’s resignation a casual event, or did it herald the beginning of some far-reaching process?

I think that it is entirely possible that it is the latter, but I am hesitant to read too much into this decision.

Part Two

of the speech.  Plus, a link to the English translation courtesy of the Kremlin.

Dmitry Medvedev’s Speech to United Russia

The speech is divided into two parts on YouTube.  I am republishing them both.

Medvedev’s Article

in anticipation of his trip to Singapore this weekend.  Not really anything we have not heard before (though his comments at the end about the relevancy of the G8 struck me as odd).  But does anyone really believe that Dmitry Anatoly’ch has any control over foreign policy?

Translation

of yesterday’s speech by Medvedev is here!  14 pages on Word at 10 point font.  Now to run through and pick out my own quotes…

Stratfor Video

on the state owned corporations:

RT’s Take

on Medvedev’ speech earlier today:

The speech has not been published yet, but here are some more articles.  AFP, BBC, and from Keith Timimi at Economy Watch.

Medvedev’s Anti-Corruption Campaign

This idea came to me this morning on my way to work (yes, I forgot it was a holiday).  I believe that something big is about to happen within the Russian political system.  And I believe that some kind of announcement will be made within a week of Medvedev’s speech to the Federal Assembly on… wait for it… we finally have a date… tomorrow, the 12th of November.  The official announcement was made today.

But what will the announcement be?  Let’s be honest.  There are not that many people within the Government who can be replaced.  And there are not that many people within the Presidential Administration who can be replaced.  The idea that Sergei Naryshkin can be removed is a joke.  Naryshkin was made Head of the Presidential Administration for a reason, and that reason (Medvedev) is still there.