Umarov Wins (Again)
Umarov has done what he set out to do. He has proven that he is capable of carrying out some kind of attack. And he has already done that. Or rather, he has proven that Riyad-us-Saliheen is still operational, and capable of infiltrating Russia proper.
Now all Umarov has to do is sit back and wait. Because anything that happens in the next month or so will be blamed on the North Caucasian insurgency (aka: Caucasus Emirate).
The murder spree in Stavropol this week is a prime example. The authorities now allege the crime was committed by men from the Zolksy Jamaat (a militant group) from Kabardino-Balkaria in revenge for the fact that they were nearly wiped out back in October. This sounds a little too cut-and-dried to me. There are too many unknowns about the Jamaat system for the cops to make that claim with any authority. Therefore, I am not ready to dismiss the organised crime theory.
Meanwhile, it took the authorities 2 weeks to round up six suspects in the car bombing in Pyatigorsk. And they are still looking for the organisers of the twin bombings in Volgograd.
So Umarov wins (again).