My Duma Election 2011 Predictions
Now that the Duma elections are getting closer, and Mikhail Prokhorov has declared his intention of getting 15% of the vote in December, I have decided to post my predictions for the elections. I found this chart over at Wikipedia of polls conducted by VTsIOM, and Levada, FOM (?), and I think it is odd that Levada is consistently higher in favour of United Russia. But all of the polls do seem to show that the apathy among the general public is growing, as well as the dissatisfaction with United Russia.
Now for my numbers:
United Russia received 64.3% of the vote in the last election. I don’t think they will get quite that much this time, but they will sill receive enough to maintain their majority. I am predicting that they will get approximately 62%.
In second place last election were the Communists with 11.57% of the vote. I think they’ll maintain that this time around, although I will round up to 12% just to make it easier.
Third place went to LDPR with 8.14%. My prediction is that they will maintain that, but round down to 8%.
And A Just Russia just made it over the threshold with 7.74% in 2007. I don’t think they will cross that this time around, and I am betting that most of those seats will go to Right Cause and Mikhail Prokhorov. I am not confident that Prokhorov will achieve the 15% he is predicting for himself, and his party, but I predict that they will get close with 12%.
And those are my numbers. Let me know what you think!
P.S. I am working on a theory re: the March election, but it is not quite finished yet. I hope to post it in the next few days.