Putinania

Russian Politics, & Personalities

My Duma Election 2011 Predictions

with 2 comments

Now that the Duma elections are getting closer, and Mikhail Prokhorov has declared his intention of getting 15% of the vote in December, I have decided to post my predictions for the elections.  I found this chart over at Wikipedia of polls conducted by VTsIOM, and Levada, FOM (?), and I think it is odd that Levada is consistently higher in favour of United Russia.  But all of the polls do seem to show that the apathy among the general public is growing, as well as the dissatisfaction with United Russia.

Now for my numbers:

United Russia received 64.3% of the vote in the last election.  I don’t think they will get quite that much this time, but they will sill receive enough to maintain their majority.  I am predicting that they will get approximately 62%.

In second place last election were the Communists with 11.57% of the vote.  I think they’ll maintain that this time around, although I will round up to 12% just to make it easier.

Third place went to LDPR with 8.14%.  My prediction is that they will maintain that, but round down to 8%.

And A Just Russia just made it over the threshold with 7.74% in 2007.  I don’t think they will cross that this time around, and I am betting that most of those seats will go to Right Cause and Mikhail Prokhorov.  I am not confident that Prokhorov will achieve the 15% he is predicting for himself, and his party, but I predict that they will get close with 12%.

And those are my numbers.  Let me know what you think!

P.S. I am working on a theory re: the March election, but it is not quite finished yet.  I hope to post it in the next few days.

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Written by Nina Jobe

July 2, 2011 at 1:42 PM

2 Responses

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  1. Just Russia should get in the State Duma. The threshold has been reduced by new federal legislation from 7% to 5%, to broaden the party system. The new State Duma will be elected to serve five years as opposed to the current four. With a new United Russia majority, the chances are good it will last out its term. The constitutional changes reduce the possibility of cohabitation but that can removed for good by reducing the presidential term one year from six years to five so the President and the Prime Minister, like in France, always come from the same party.

    NormanF

    October 27, 2011 at 5:51 AM

    • I know that Medvedev proposed lowering the threshold but Boris Gryzlov threw a little tantrum over it, and I’m not sure it actually ever passed. I will keep looking for the article, and get back to you.
      Also, they’ve bypassed the party issue to such a degree that it doesn’t really matter. Neither Putin nor Medvedev are actually members of United Russia. They are only using the as a vehicle to… actually I am not really sure why.

      putinania

      October 27, 2011 at 8:31 AM


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